Smooth With a Kick (#1) will be a prohibitive favorite in this spot after chasing home the classy Off Topic last time. I don’t have a major issue with her, but she tends to get overbet, and I think that’s going to be the case again here. There isn’t much speed in this field and Smooth With a Kick’s connections have made it clear that they she’s best rating off the pace. She reacted badly to racing inside of horses two back, so I worry a bit about the trip she might pull here. I have even less confidence in Chad Brown’s other horse, Canteen (#5), who beat a very weak field to break her maiden last time. I want to go in a different direction.
I’m interested in MY BRONX TAIL (#6) on the stretch-out. This filly seemed like one that had serious stamina limitations earlier in her career, but she’s transformed for Michelle Nevin into a far more robust 4-year-old filly. She had no trouble getting the 7 furlongs two back against a maiden field that wasn’t significantly worse than this group of winners. She seems like a true need-the-lead type, so I can draw a line through her last race when they experimented with rating tactics. In this spot, Luis Reyes just had to hustle her to the front, and she might be able to do the rest.
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,2,5
Trifecta: 1,6 with 1,6 with ALL