Following the scratch of Chalon, Ms Locust Point (#6) figures to inherit the favorite’s role and she’s dangerous given the likely pace scenario. The Pace Projector is predicting that she will be clearly in a front in a situation favoring the early leader. While that should help her cause, I’m a little concerned about her getting the seven furlongs, since that distance has been a problem for her in the past. That said, you can’t deny that she’s posted some impressive TimeformUS Speed Figures this year and would be formidable if she brings that form to New York.
My top pick is PINK SANDS (#4), who won’t be as big of a price after the scratch of the favorite but still offers some appeal at anything around 3-1 or 7-2. Her recent form leaves something to be desired, but I like this turnback in distance for her. She wanted no part of the two-turn 1 1/8 miles at Saratoga two back and then she never had a chance after a stumbling break when caught behind a slow pace at Churchill Downs last time. She had previously run well in a few stakes attempts out of town and I still believe that her ideal distance is seven furlongs. It’s somewhat of a concern that she won’t get much pace to close into here, but Jose Ortiz seems to ride this filly better than anyone else.
Other horses that I’d want to include are Majestic Reason (#5), who seems to be in top form now at the end of her 4-year-old season, and Saguaro Row (#8), who handled a sloppy Belmont surface very well back in the spring.
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 3,5,6,8
Trifecta: 4 with 5,6,8 with 1,3,5,6,8