Front Run the Fed (#6) is going to be a fairly short price in this spot as he attempts to collect a second consecutive stakes victory. He beat today’s rival Bourbon War by only a half-length at Saratoga, but he accomplished that victory in impressive fashion, making a rush from last to take over in mid-stretch. He got the two turns that day, but this one-turn configuration should be right up his alley. I’m hardly against him, but I do think that he might be slightly overbet given that he’s going out for a barn whose runners tend to attract inordinate support.
Bourbon War (#8) is worth considering as he turns back to a mile. He didn’t pose a threat in the Hill Prince, but he should encounter a more favorable set of circumstances here.
I’m using him, but the horse that I’d rather take out of the Hill Prince is SEISMIC WAVE (#4). I know that he’s been a disappointment for Bill Mott, but you can make plenty of excuses for this horse. It’s possible that he just didn’t want to go 10 furlongs in the Belmont and Saratoga derbies, so I don’t mind this turnback to the one-mile distance at all.
Seismic Wave had an uncomfortable trip in the Saranac two back, as he was steadied at a critical point on the far turn when attempting to launch a rally. It’s not unreasonable to suggest he might have won that race with a clean trip. Then last time, like Bourbon War, he never had a chance to get into the Hill Prince, which was dominated on the front end. He also wasn’t helped by getting rank behind the slow pace. This time the Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace and his TimeformUS Late Pace Rating of 114 is the highest in the field.
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,6,7,8
Trifecta: 4,6 with 4,6 with 1,3,7,8