I’m not completely against horses like Holiday Disguise (#1) and Carrera Cat (#9), but I also haven’t been thrilled with their recent efforts. You have to admire Holiday Disguise’s longevity, as she’s still competing at this level after three seasons, but it’s been a while since she’s run one of her better races. She was fairly dull last time out when losing the Union Avenue as the 8-5 favorite and I believe she could be up against it here unless she produces a better performance.
Carrera Cat seems like a logical alternative, especially after she defeated Holiday Disguise in that aforementioned stakes. However, the name of the game with her is speed, and I’m somewhat concerned that she might hook up with the very swift Filibustin in the opening furlongs. Filibustin isn’t really a threat to be around at the end, but she could spell trouble for this otherwise logical contender. It’s also not as if Carrera Cat’s top speed figures make her that formidable at this level, and this race came up tougher than the Union Avenue.
Given my reservations with those two, I’m going with SATISFY (#7) to get back on track here. This mare was obviously in excellent form last year when she finished second in this race, earning an impressive 116 TimeformUS Speed Figure. She obviously had a setback earlier this year to be off for so long, but I thought her return race at Monmouth wasn’t nearly as bad as it seems. She was in behind some longshots in a bunched field coming around the far turn and Joe Bravo had to tap on the brakes a few times while trying to find a clear path. She ultimately got free in the stretch, but it was too late to mount a rally in a race that held together up front. She’s better than that and I believe her performance isn’t as poor as the speed figures indicate. I expect her to bounce back with a good effort this time.
The other horse that I would use somewhere underneath is More Mischief (#8). This 3-year-old filly hasn’t yet run fast enough to be competitive with this group, but she’s always shown talent and might be heading in the right direction. I like the aggressive placement by a trainer who spots his horses where they can win.
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,2,3,8,9
Trifecta: 7 with 3,8,9 with 1,2,3,8,9