I suppose Break Curfew (#1) might have a slight edge if she repeats her Prioress effort. She was content to stalk a fast pace that day and stayed on decently in the stretch. She only beat one rival home, but she nevertheless earned a 109 TimeformUS Speed Figure, a number that makes her pretty formidable against this group.
I prefer her to Concerned (#5), the last-out debut winner who may attract some support. This filly was visually impressive in victory back in June, but she was beating one of the weakest maiden special weight fields that’s been assembled all year at NYRA. She was allowed to set a slow early pace and sprint home, and the 89 TimeformUS Speed Figure that she was assigned does not make her competitive against this bunch. Furthermore, Mark Hennig is just 4 for 42 (10%, $0.89 ROI) with last-out maiden winners on dirt. I prefer those with experience against winners.
Our Circle of Love (#2) can be a little inconsistent, but she’s coming off a solid performance at Saratoga, and Alisio’s (#3) two efforts since returning from a layoff have been encouraging. I’d use both of them prominently, but my top pick is Kiaran McLaughlin’s other filly.
SINWAAN (#6) is coming off a poor effort at Saratoga, but she had a significant excuse that day. Heading for the far turn, she was about to get squeezed out of position, so Luis Saez reined her in to drop in behind Our Circle of Love. Unfortunately, that proved to be a poor choice as that filly was in the midst of retreating, and Sinwaan got shuffled all the way back to last by the time they arrived at the quarter pole. She got into the clear at that point, but Saez didn’t persevere with her in the stretch. She’s now had plenty of time since that effort and comes into this race off a steady series of works. While she’s not a one-dimensional closer, she’s proven that she can pass horses and most of her main rivals are early speed types. Furthermore, she’s handled a wet track in the past and there’s plenty of rain in the forecast for Wednesday.
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,2,3
Trifecta: 6 with 1,2,3 with ALL