Belmont | Race 7 | Post Time 4:40 p.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs 
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Pivotal Connection (#3) will probably beat this field if she duplicates her last performance, which resulted in an impressive 111 TimeformUS Speed Figure. However, she got a very good trip that day, saving ground while rating well off a fast pace, and was never a serious threat in the lane. I’m not convinced that she necessarily gets better with added distance, since she lost a similar race going this distance a year ago. Perhaps she’s improved since then, but I want to see some validation for that last performance before I accept a very short price on her.

Cap de Creus (#6) and Fancy That (#1A) are coming out of a race at Saratoga on Aug. 22. Fancy That got an odd trip that day, as she appeared to be empty when backing up at the top of the stretch, but she rerallied to be second. Meanwhile, Cap de Creus probably didn’t appreciate inheriting the lead and she was trying to battle back in the stretch when they were sprinting to the wire. I’m using both of them, but I want to go in a different direction.

SO CHARMING’S (#4) recent form appears to be slightly inferior to some others. However, she’s had excuses in a few of those races. She was never really in a position to be competitive last time, as she encountered some trouble at the back of the pack and couldn’t uncork her late run. She doesn’t possess a strong turn of foot, so she couldn’t quite kick with the others when they sprinted for home two back at Saratoga. She’s a horse who seems to do her best work at Belmont Park and this 10-furlong distance is ideal. It’s been a long time since she’s won a race, but that only figures to drive up the price on this otherwise logical contender.

THE PLAY

Win: 4
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,3,5,6
Trifecta: 3,4 with 3,4 with 1,5,6