There are three main contenders in this race and two of them are trained by Jason Servis. Happy Farm (#5) figures to be the favorite given his pair of recent victories and impressive set of speed figures since the claim by this barn. However, he’s stepping up in class pretty significantly after facing claiming and starter allowance company in recent months. While he was impressive in victory last time, he was also riding a strong rail bias that exaggerated his margin of victory. I’m not sure that he’s actually quite as good as those recent efforts indicate and I want to take a shot against him at a short price.
Fuel the Bern (#2) makes plenty of sense, since he’s already proven than he can run well at this level. This is arguably a weaker field than the one he met last time, when he was sandwiched between stakes horses Build to Suit and Eye Luv Lulu. He should sit a decent trip and Danny Gargan has been having a strong meet.
My top pick is actually the other Jason Servis horse, CHATEAU (#4). At first glance, the 6 1/2 furlongs might seem like a stretch for this runner, but I think he’s better equipped to handle it than some may realize. The Pace Projector is predicting that he will be on the lead in a scenario favoring the front-runner. He earned a field-best 115 TimeformUS Speed Figure for his last effort, as he was rewarded for surviving an extremely fast pace. The other horses who were chasing him in the early going that day finished last and second-to-last, but they returned to earn TimeformUS Speed Figures that were 28 and 23 points faster, respectively, in their subsequent starts. That leads me to believe that Chateau’s effort may have been even stronger than it appears.
Exacta: 4 with 2,5