Shareholder Value (#2) is the horse to beat as he plunges in class to this $16,000 level. This was obviously not the greatest claim for $62,500 back in January, as he has struggled to recapture his better form in 2019. He’s the class of this field and can obviously win, but Jason Servis does not have the best record with these types. Over the past five years, he is 13 for 41 (32 percent, $1.39 ROI) with horses dropping in claiming price by 50 percent or more on dirt. He wins at a high rate, but the ROI indicates that they are generally overbet. Furthermore, this horse does not possess a great deal of tactical speed, so I’m somewhat concerned that he will be on the chase while cutting back to a sprint distance.
The Pace Projector is predicting that PROFESSOR SNAPE (#1) will be able to control the early tempo in a situation favoring the front-runner. I don’t love this horse, but I just think he’s landed in the right spot. He’s run well for a variety of trainers, so I’m not too concerned about the trainer switch to Robert Barbara off the claim. His last race was flattered when T Loves a Fight returned to win in a tougher spot this week, and Professor Snape should appreciate getting back on a fast track. He handles wet going, but I don’t think it’s his best surface. As long as he breaks cleanly, he’ll be difficult to run down.
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,4,5
Trifecta: 1 with 2,4 with 2,3,4,5