It’s difficult to know how bettors will approach this race given that the contenders are coming in from a multitude of different directions. I suppose Militiaman (#5) will take some money despite the fact that he’s only coming off a maiden victory. These lightly raced Chad Brown trainees tend to be quite appealing, and he’s already won over this course and distance. However, he does need to improve slightly on the 103 TimeformUS Speed Figure he earned last time, and he won that race over a “good” turf course while closing into a fast pace. I prefer his more seasoned rivals.
Hierarchy (#6) makes some sense, but he just doesn’t seem to have that killer instinct. The same goes for Rapt (#4), who has earned the best speed figures but is a question mark going this distance. Extraordinary Jerry (#1) is slightly more appealing, since he had to wait in traffic in upper stretch last time and has prior speed figures that make him formidable. Yet I want to go in a different direction.
My top selection is CRACKSPEED (#3). I had been interested in this horse last time when he made his turf debut. He obviously handled the surface, but his trip did not work out. He was far too keen in the early stages, and Flavien Prat allowed him to run off on the lead as he set unreasonably fast fractions for the distance. All things considered, he actually hung on well to be fourth, just three-quarters of a length behind Hierarchy. Crackspeed should appreciate the slight cutback to 10 furlongs, and I would imagine new rider Joel Rosario will attempt to rate him on the early lead. If this horse can put it all together and run a professional race, he’s good enough to beat this field, and he should be a square price.
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,4,5,6
Trifecta: 3 with 1,4 with ALL