Sayyaaf (#1A) ran to his turf-oriented pedigree when switched to grass last time over today’s course and distance. This Chad Brown-trained colt did well to come on again in the final furlong after contesting a fast early pace. He is obviously the horse to beat, but these connections tend to get overbet and he’s part of an entry, so there’s a high likelihood that he will be an underlay. I believe there are some viable alternatives.
Dillon Rocks (#5) steps back up in class after hanging on for second at the $75,000 maiden claiming level last time. The switch to turf has done wonders for him, as he even ran quite well three back when 4th behind the talented Unleveraged. This horse showed a preference for sprint distances on the dirt, so today’s slight turnback to 7 furlongs on grass should be to his liking. He’s run some competitive speed figures already, and he figures to be a square price due to the presence of the favored entry.
My top pick is first time turfer SWICK (#6). This horse did not run that badly in his debut on June 7 when pitted against a very salty field for the level. He was riding a good rail for most of the way, but he nevertheless stayed on well throughout. His sire Big Drama connects with 12% of his turf starters. While this dam was off the board in all 3 turf attempts, his second dam achieved two victories on turf including a victory in the Grade 3 Regret. John Terranova has had success in these maiden turf sprints and this gelding seems to have some ability.
Exacta Box: 1,5,6
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 7,8
Trifecta: 1,6 with 1,6 with 5,7,8