This is arguably the most confusing race on the card, as you make a valid case for almost all of the seven runners.
I suppose Dream Passage (#5) will go off as the favorite off her visually impressive score going this distance in late April. She was only beating New York-breds that day, but she took down a heavily bet Chad Brown favorite and earned an impressive 111 TimeformUS Speed Figure. She had previously been a closing sprinter, so the sudden improvement going a mile was fairly surprising, but she must be respected off that effort. I prefer her to Go Rose (#7), who earned a respectable speed figure in her U.S. debut last time but did so with the benefit of a perfect trip. I’m more interested in a couple of horses looking to get back into top form.
Goodbye Brockley (#2) ran a number of races in 2018 that would make her a player in this spot. She was never in serious contention in her return last time, but she may not have appreciated the 1 1/8-mile distance of that race. This turnback should be to her liking.
My top pick is PURRAGEOUS DYNA (#4). This mare might look inferior at first glance, but her turf form actually stacks up well against this field. She put in an encouraging effort at this level last June, finishing just behind a pair of superior Brown fillies, Complicit and Silver Shaker. She didn’t handle 1 1/4 miles in her next start, and she was placed over head in the Yaddo. Yet she put in a good effort when she was back in a realistic spot in September, finishing second behind Golden Attitude, who returned to place in a stakes. Her most recent dirt start was a prep, and she should be set to move forward.
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 2,3,5,7
Trifecta: 4 with 2,5 with 1,2,3,5,7