Belmont | Race 1 | Post Time 1:30 p.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs 
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Rudy Rodriguez holds a strong hand in this conditioned claimer, sending out Simona (#3) and Promise Me Roses (#5). The former filly may go off as the favorite as she steps up to the N3L level off an easy win in late April. She always runs competitive speed figures but tends to settle for minor awards, so it remains to be seen if she can put together back-to-back victories.

Her stablemate Promise Me Roses seems like the a more talented individual, but she’s failed to maintain her form ever since being claimed away from Rob Atras. Rudy Rodriguez did get a little too ambitious off the claim, running her in a tougher starter allowance two back, and it’s possible that she hated a sloppy track last time. However, the track is likely to be wet again on Friday and she has also struggled to get out of the gate in recent starts. I’m using her, but I want to look elsewhere for my top pick.

I’ve landed on REATA’S REWARD (#1), whose early speed is going to make her dangerous. The Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring horses on or near the lead, and she is clearly faster than her rivals in the early going. She was supposed to have a similar advantage last time, but she stumbled and fell to her nose at the start, losing all chance. I think it’s noteworthy that she had been well supported in the wagering that day – bet down to a surprising even-money – because it may signal that she’s doing well and can get back to her better efforts from 2018. As long as she breaks cleanly this time, I think she’ll be tough to reel in.

THE PLAY

Win: 1
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 3,5,6
Trifecta: 1 with 3,5 with 2,3,5,6