Its All Relevant (#3) is going to attract some support, and I’m fairly skeptical of this runner. He’s moving way up in class off the claim back by Linda Rice after being dangled for much cheaper tags on a number of occasions throughout the winter. There are clearly some holes in this horse that have given his connections reservations. That said, he has run some fast speed figures, but I think it’s wise to pay attention to the difference between the Beyer and TimeformUS speed figures with this particular horse. He ran in a number of races that necessitated tricky judgment calls for figure-makers, and he has also set slow paces on a few occasions. That has resulted in the TimeformUS numbers rating him lower, and those figures suggest he needs to improve to beat this field. I respect the connections, but I am against this horse.
I just believe CANDYGRAM (#6) is more naturally talented. I know he wasn’t beating the strongest field in the slop last time, but he handled 1 1/8 miles, which probably isn’t his best distance, earning a career-best 118 TimeformUS Speed Figure. He ran deceptively well in both of his sprint races at Gulfstream this winter. He was put in a precarious spot when he returned three back and had to rally up the rail after chasing a fast pace, and then two back he was off slowly and closed resolutely in a speed-favoring situation. I have always felt this horse would be best going a one-turn mile, and now he turns back to contest that distance. I love the outside post position for a horse who is as comfortable stalking as he is on the lead, and I think he’s the most likely winner of this race.
The other runners to consider are Be Gone Daddy (#2) and Roaming Union (#4). However, the former probably needs a pace collapse in order to win, and the latter may prefer two turns. The exotics horse that I want to include at a much bigger price is Giuseppe the Great (#1). This 5-year-old has plenty of back class, and his return at Keeneland was not as bad as it seems. He was compromised by a very slow pace and was running on late behind some salty rivals.
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,2,4,5
Trifecta: 6 with 1,2 with ALL