Newly Minted (#5) and Stonesintheroad (#8) are likely to vie for favoritism in this Park Avenue division of the New York Stallion Stakes. The former made quite a splash in her debut for Linda Rice just last week. Despite getting dismissed at nearly 9-1, she burst forth from the gate with purpose and never looked back, easily drawing off from a solid maiden field. Her 99 TimeformUS Speed Figure for that performance stacks up well against Stonesintheroad’s best numbers, and Rice typically gets horses to improve out of their debuts. The only question mark for this talented filly is the seven-day turnaround.
I’ve never been the biggest fan of her main rival, Stonesintheroad (#8). She had favorable circumstances in her first three starts and faced adversity for the first time in last month’s Cicada. While she was hardly disgraced in defeat, she showed that she can be vulnerable to a serious pace rival. The Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, with these two aforementioned fillies likely to hook up on the front end. They may be talented enough to survive an early duel, but I believe there is at least one stretch runner who could have a say in the outcome.
ALPHADORA (#7) is still a maiden, but I believe she belongs in a race like this. This filly ran better than it seems in her debut, when she was wide against a rail bias, and then two back, she finished well from off the pace to just miss. She finally seemed to put things together last time with the addition of blinkers, running a career-best 95 TimeformUS Speed Figure. However, a questionable ride prevented her from winning that day, as she made a premature move to the lead and was seemingly eased up late. I like the slight turnback in distance and believe she can be effective from off the pace for low-profile connections. The Pace Projector is predicting that she will receive a fast pace ahead of her to aid her closing run.
Alphadora should offer value in the win pool, and I will also use her underneath the most likely winner, Newly Minted (#5), in exotics.
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 5,8,9
Trifecta: 5 with 6,8,9 with 7