Pound Note (#12) may be the favorite here despite drawing a difficult outside post position. She was facing some decent fillies in Florida and ran respectably in those races against open company. She should appreciate the return to New York-breds, and it’s a good sign that she’s attracted top rider Irad Ortiz. I’m definitely using her, but I’m concerned about her trip from this slot. This race is fairly wide open among the rest of the field.
Smiles From Sadie will attract support, but she has a case of seconditis, and her lone turf start was lackluster. Summer Squeeze could win this race if she ran back to her lone prior turf route, but she’s missed plenty of time since that race.
I want to take a shot with a longshot. ORBILICIOUS (#7) would have intrigued me wherever she showed up after her last two trips, but I’m actually quite pleased that she’s been entered in a turf race. She ran much better than it seems two back when she was bumped hard and spotted the field a couple of lengths at the start. Then last time, she again was off toward the back of the pack but then was unwisely rushed up in a premature move. She’s in much better form than it seems, and I believe she’ll appreciate this switch to grass. She’s sired by the decent turf influence Orb, and her dam was clearly best on turf, making 17 of her 19 starts on that surface and winning twice. Eric Cancel needs to deliver a more patient ride this time to be successful.
The other horse that I would use prominently is Codrington (#11). This filly gets a significant trainer change to Danny Gargan, and it’s important to point out that her turf races last fall at Belmont were not nearly as poor as they seem given her difficult trips in those spots. She can make some noise here at a price.
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 4,9,11,12