The scratch of Dowse’s Beach, who appeared to be the stronger half of the Michael Dubb entry, makes this race significantly more wide-open. That said, there is still a good case to be made for his stablemate We Should Talk (#1), who has gotten limited turf opportunities in his career. It appears that he’s been rested up for this return to grass in his first start off the claim for Jorge Abreu. I’ll definitely use him, but I still believe better value lies elsewhere in this field.
I want to take a shot with CATCH A CAB (#4) as he returns from the layoff. This horse got into very good form last summer for Mark Casse, winning three straight races at Belmont before running poorly against open company. He made his first start off the claim for the Toscano barn in October, and he actually ran quite well. He made a strong move into contention approaching the quarter pole and briefly lost momentum while trying to squeeze through between horses. All things considered, I thought he ran well to just miss finishing second that day. If I’m right about Dowse’s Beach, Catch a Cab can win this race by merely repeating his last effort. He’s clearly the second fastest horse in the field in terms of speed figures. The layoff is obviously a concern, but Toscano has won with a couple of turf horses off similar breaks in the past.
The other horse I want to use prominently is Royal Asset (#7). He might be the speed of this field and he’s run many competitive speed figures on turf, but you have to be somewhat concerned about his lackluster recent form.
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,3,6,7
Trifecta: 4 with 1,7 with ALL