Standard Deviation (#1) seems like the horse to beat as he makes his second start off the layoff. He actually ran quite well in his return race at Gulfstream, chasing the highly regarded colt Global Campaign to the finish. That rival returned to run fairly well in the Fountain of Youth next time out. Standard Deviation seems like the type of runner who will continue to improve with experience. He generated some buzz when he finished a late-running third in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity, but he was biting off more than he could chew in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile in his subsequent outing. Chad Brown is taking it slower with this son of Curlin as a 3-year-old, and he figures to be formidable in this spot. However, he’s facing another colt who is dropping out of a Derby prep.
THE RIGHT PATH (#4) has run just as fast as Standard Deviation and will also benefit from the class relief. The Right Path’s early speed could make him especially dangerous as he cuts back to a one-turn mile. The Pace Projector is predicting that he will be on the lead in a situation favoring the front-runner. He never got to show that speed last time when he was cut off at the start of the Tampa Bay Derby. I thought his prior effort against allowance company was quite good, as he battled on gamely through the lane despite getting shut off at the eighth pole. If Jose Lezcano puts him on the lead, it may be difficult for Standard Deviation to reel him in.
The other horse to consider is Pulsate (#2). He’s run some competitive speed figures in his recent starts against maidens, but he must prove that he can handle the stretch-out in distance. I’ll use him underneath.
Exacta: 4 with 1,2
Trifecta: 4 with 1 with 2,3,6