I have nothing against likely favorite Beautiful Lover (#3). This filly has been highly regarded from the start. Sent off at 5-2 against a strong field in her debut at Gulfstream, she raced too close to a fast pace before making a premature move and fading. She was much more professional in her second start, as she kindly rated behind runners before exploding once pointed to daylight at the top of the stretch. She was not meeting a field of quality that day, but she earned a respectable speed figure and appears to have more to offer.
It will take a serious performance to defeat the favorite in this spot, and the only filly who seems capable of taking such a step forward is MAKEME DREAM (#6). This Christophe Clement filly did not beat a strong field in her debut at Tampa in early February. However, I loved what I saw from her that day. She was willing throughout but never excessively keen while kindly rating inside of horses. She seamlessly moved into the lead approaching the quarter pole and hit another gear once Camacho asked her. Just as quickly as she accelerated, Camacho was already gearing her down as she approached the wire. The 93 TimeformUS Speed Figure that she earned for that performance puts her right in line with the favorite.
Makeme Dream is an imposing physical presence and she has the pedigree to go along with her looks. Her second dam is Grade 1 Matriarch winner Dress to Thrill and her dam is by the great sire Galileo. Clement has done very well when hooking up with Eric Cancel over the past few seasons, winning at 22 percent (5 for 23) with a flashy ROI of $8.14. Perhaps more importantly, Clement has outstanding numbers with last-out debut winners making their second career starts on the turf. Over the past 5 years, he is 10 for 27 (37 percent, $2.94 ROI) and within that sample he is 6 for 13 at NYRA tracks.
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,2,3
Trifecta: 3,6 with 3,6 with 1,2,5