This Caixa Eletronica – a $40,000 starter allowance – brings together an interesting mix of stakes performers and high-class allowance horses. The two runners likely to vie for favoritism are Mr. Dougie Fresh (#9) and Bavaro (#11). The former has been in excellent form since the Jason Servis claim, but must prove that he can handle the turnback to 7 furlongs. Conversely, Bavaro has been in the best shape of his career recently for Linda Rice, but he is questionable to stretch out an extra furlong.
The Pace Projector is no longer predicting a fast pace after scratches, but the leaders do figure to be moving quickly up front given the presence of a few key speeds. If the pace is taxing, the 7 furlongs could prove difficult for Bavaro. Mr. Dougie Fresh possesses a more versatile running style and seems like the biggest threat. I’ll use both of these horses, but I think there are some additional contenders are bigger prices that merit consideration.
One of those is Rockinn On Bye (#3), who has kept solid company at Laurel. His speed figures put him in the mix and his running style fits this race. The only problem is that he rarely wins, having finished second 17 more times than he’s won in his 66-start career.
The late runner who intrigues me most at an even bigger price is CANDID DESIRE (#10). This horse is capable of putting forth big efforts on occasion, and he appears to be rounding back into top form. He hinted that he was starting to turn things around two back when rallying to be second in a fast New York-bred claiming event, and he built upon that improvement last time. His performance on Mar. 17 was exceptional. The race flow did not suit him, as the race was dominated on the lead by horses who set moderate fractions. Yet Candid Desire somehow put in a dazzling stretch rally to nearly go from last to first in the final quarter mile. According to Trakus, he ran his final quarter in 23.72 seconds, which is almost unbelievable over this Aqueduct track. Eric Cancel rides closing sprinters very well and seems like a perfect fit for this horse. If he can reproduce that form in this spot, I think he’s a serious threat at a price.
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 1,3,5,9,11
Trifecta: 9,11 with 1,3,5,9,11 with 10