Some may perceive Free Kitty (#1) as the horse to beat since she’s already proven at this class level. However, she’s really best going a mile, so this turnback to 6 furlongs is of serious concern. While moves like this do work for some horses, Free Kitty has never been one that relishes passing horses, so I’m not convinced that she’s going to work out the kind of trip that she needs to be successful. Furthermore, I don’t like that she’s been a vet scratch twice since her last start.
The one to catch is Science Fiction (#4), who the Pace Projector is predicting will be out winging on the early lead in a scenario favoring the front-runner. She’s making her first start against winners after a facile maiden victory last time, but the margin of victory was exaggerated by the breakdown of her main rival on the far turn. She hasn’t run significantly faster than her main rivals and I think she’s getting a major class test.
Party in the Sand (#5) would be appealing if not for the fact that the pace dynamics of this race are likely to work against her. She’s arguably in the best form of any of these, but she is a one-run closer who typically needs some help up front and she’s not going to get it.
Given my reservations about the aforementioned fillies and mares, I’m taking a shot against them with SWEET LIKE CHAR (#2). She possesses the early speed to keep Science Fiction honest early, and I think she’s going to appreciate this turnback. I realize that she broke her maiden going two turns, but she did so in a very slow race. Her return on Oct. 22 was undoubtedly the best effort of her career and that came in a one-turn sprint. The speed figure of that Parx race totally checks out, and she didn’t run as badly as it might seem last time when overmatched against starter allowance foes.
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 1,4,5,6
Trifecta: 2 with 4,5 with 1,4,5,6