This is one of the most confusing races on the card, and one that seriously complicates an already daunting Pick-6 sequence. My primary opinion is that I don’t want the Finger Lakes horses. I think all of them are traps. Dynamax Prime (#5) had gone badly off form when last seen on the NYRA circuit. Some will be encouraged that he’s actually won again, but I suggest you look up the past performances of the horses he’s beaten. Lion Sleeps (#6) has run against better competition, but he’s been greatly aided by slow paces in those races, and he faces a much more difficult pace scenario this time.
I think Three to Thirteen (#1) is strictly the one to beat. I know the Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, but this horse is faster than today’s rivals and should be able to clear off in front under an aggressive rider. The fact of the matter is that his recent efforts in dirt routes are all strong enough to win this race, and he’s especially dangerous when able to dictate terms up front. I believe he deserves to be the favorite in this race, and I nearly made him my top selection. I only placed him second because there’s a horse in this field that may get lost in the shuffle whom I want to highlight.
KERRY BOY (#9) goes out for low-profile connections, and some may dismiss him on those grounds. However, this gelding has actually run some competitive speed figures at this level very recently. He ran deceptively well to be fourth on Sep. 29 when compromised by a wide trip against a rail bias. He was then hindered by a slow pace when attempting to close on Nov. 9. I don’t want to hold his last race against him since he was badly overmatched against open company. Now he’s dropping to the right level and turning back to an appropriate distance. If a strong pace develops up front, he could pick them all up late at a generous price.
Exacta Key Box: 9 with 1,2,4,5,6
Trifecta: 1,9 with 1,9 with 2,3,4,5,6