Saturday TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Added distance should help Filly Joel in the Demoiselle

Aqueduct | Race 4 | Post Time 1:02 p.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs 
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Enliven (#1) is likely to go off at a very short price in this Demoiselle, and the bulk of that support will be based on her runner-up finish in the Tempted last time. That race came up very fast in terms of speed figures, though the TimeformUS numbers have it slightly slower than others. While Enliven ran fine within the context of that Tempted, I still think we’re waiting for some confirmation that longshot winner Oxy Lady is quite as good as the speed figures suggest. While her dam could get 1 1/8 miles, this family is probably best at or around a mile. I’m using her prominently, but I think others will offer much better value.

Filly-Joel.png

I want to bet FILLY JOEL (#3). This daughter of Dialed In ran like one that would appreciate more ground in her first couple of sprint starts, and she confirmed that was the case when she finally stretched out last time. She showed much better early speed in that 1 1/16-mile maiden event, and easily took over in the lane to register a decisive win. Her 102 TimeformUS Speed Figure is the highest number in the field, and I don’t see any reason why she won’t be able to repeat it going this distance around two turns. In my opinion, she should be a close second choice around 5-2, and I think you’ll get a much better price than that.

I also wouldn’t totally discount Positive Spirit (#4). Rodolphe Brisset has very good numbers off maiden wins on the dirt (5 for 8, $5.05 ROI), but this filly needs to run much faster to contend here.

THE PLAY

Win: 3
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 1,4,7
Trifecta: 3 with 1,4 with 1,4,5,6,7

 

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