I suppose Crea’s Bklyn Law (#2) is the horse to beat off the claim by Michael Dubb and trainer Michelle Nevin. His prior low-profile connections ran him in tough spots in which he was overmatched on too many occasions, and his new barn is running him at the right class level. He’s formidable, but he’s not the most reliable win candidate.
Shortlist (#3) appears to be one of his main rivals. While he’s more of a turf horse, his most recent dirt effort at Laurel was actually pretty solid. He wasn’t beaten by that much and the horses that finished ahead of him all have some quality to them and would likely be favored against this field. The problem that I have with Shortlist is the distance of this race. He went a mile last time and his best efforts on turf have come over longer distances. I’m skeptical about him handling 7 furlongs.
I’m taking a shot against these two with WILD COLONIAL BOY (#7). This gelding was an intriguing addition to the New York-bred ranks when he made his NYRA debut at Saratoga over the summer. He had run a bit better than it might appear in his first couple of starts at Gulfstream, and he really put things together with blinkers added in his Saratoga maiden score. He tried much tougher company in his first start against winners when going out for this new barn, and he couldn’t quite handle the stepup in class. Something may have gone amiss following that race, as it’s taken him a while to return to the work tab, and to get back into the entries in the afternoon. I think Linda Rice is bringing him back at an appropriate class level, and he would certainly be a player in this race if he could get back to his Saratoga victory.
Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,2,3
Trifecta: 7 with 2,3 with 1,2,3,6