The main players in this field are exiting the Maid of the Mist. Surge of Pride (#9) was the winner that day, and she returned to validate the speed figure that she earned in that victory when finishing a distant third in the open-company Tempted next time out. She’s obviously a player in this race, but she may have to close from farther back in the pack as she turns back in distance. She worked out a perfect trip to win that stakes two back, and I’m not sure she’ll be so fortunate again.
I actually prefer the fillies that finished just behind her in the Maid of the Mist. Elegant Zip (#1) is obviously a major player. She’s placed in both of her stakes efforts, and should appreciate the turnback to 6 furlongs. Kept True (#6) is just as appealing at a better price, since she was a commanding winner of her debut before stretching out last time. She should work out a favorable stalking trip.
I’m using all of these fillies, but my top pick is the returning COLLEGEVILLE GIRL (#11). It’s taken a while for this filly to get back to the races after flipping in the gate prior to the start of the Seeking the Ante at Saratoga. She had been the favorite in that race off the strength of her impressive Saratoga maiden win. I realize that plenty of time has passed since then, but I think she’s going to be a handful here if she runs back to that race. Her 97 TimeformUS Speed Figure for that debut still stands up very well. Furthermore, while the Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace, none of Collegeville Girl’s rivals are quite as fast as her early. I think she can run them off their feet.
Exacta Key Box: 11 with 1,2,6,9