In some ways, this is actually a more interesting race on the dirt. There is likely to be value to exploit since Glossy, who was the morning line favorite on the turf, has been left in the race. There are true dirt allowance horses in this race, and Glossy has never indicated that she is talented enough to compete with runners of their caliber.
The only horse within the main body of the field whom I would consider is Dancing All Night (#6). It’s curious that Shug McGaughey has entered her for turf in each of her last two starts given that she’s run much better on the dirt. Nevertheless, her best races give her a chance. I’m using her, but the bulk of the contenders are on the Main Track Only list.
Naples Princess (#12) is the one that should be favored. She’s run quite well in all three of her starts this year and finally started to run some faster races over the summer at Saratoga. If she gets any pace to close into, she should be difficult to hold off. Another horse that I would include is Bluegrass Jamboree (#15), who made a menacing 4-wide move against a gold rail last time and actually ran better than it appears to be third. Each of the top two finishers returned to run well against stakes company, so the race may have been stronger than it first appeared.
My top selection is PALLADIAN BRIDGE (#13). I acknowledge that her recent form may concern some handicappers, but I think you can make valid excuses for most of her poor efforts. She had a meltdown prior to her race at Saratoga three back when she failed to show up with a competitive effort, and last time she was simply overmatched against a tougher field in the Iroquois. That race was full of other speed types and she lost interest once she got too far back. Palladian Bridge also has developed this bad race / good race pattern during her time in the Ray Handal barn. Today is supposed to be a day that she shows up with one of her better efforts. Any moisture left in the track should not hurt her since she has run some of her best races on wet tracks.
Exacta Key Box: 13 with 6,12,14,15
Trifecta: 13 with 12,15 with 6,12,14,15