If Outrageous Bet (#3) repeats his last effort, he probably will win. However, I think there were a few factors that contributed to that effort, which is clearly an outlier in his overall body of work. Outrageous Bet has always appreciated softer turf courses, so he got his preferred going last time, but it’s likely to be firm on Thursday. While his race came up fast, much of that was due to the quick early pace. Speedy favorite McErin had been softened up, and Outrageous Bet got a perfect ride and trip as he ran him down.
I’m still not totally convinced that Outrageous Bet is far superior to horses like Sparky and Fast Getaway, who finished just behind him back on Aug. 19 at Saratoga. Of those two, Sparky (#11) is particularly interesting since he also handles give in the ground and possesses the tactical speed to get the jump on Outrageous Bet.
My top pick is CANARSIE KID (#10), who is somewhat of a new face at this level. This horse rarely competes against New York-breds anymore, but he has remained eligible for this N1X allowance condition. He’s struggled against cheaper foes in the past, but his recent efforts suggest that he may be in the best form of his career at age 7. I was highly encouraged by his race two back behind the talented Sheikh of Sheikhs, and he seemed to improve on that last time over a yielding course at Belmont. This has always been his favorite venue, and six furlongs is the ideal distance for him.
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 3,5,7,9,11
Trifecta: 10 with 3,11 with 3,5,7,9,11