Lady Paname (#7) is likely to go off at a very short price in this race as she makes her Stateside debut for Chad Brown. On the surface of things, she does appear to have a significant class edge over her rivals. Competing in France as a 3-year-old, she was knocking heads with some very talented 3-yearolds who would go on to achieve some noteworthy accomplishments. Those include Group 1 Prix Royal-Oak winner Ice Breeze, Grade 2 Glens Falls winner Lady Montdore, and Group 1 Prix Vermeille winner Kitesurf. However, there are a couple of issues with Lady Paname in this return race. The biggest hurdle is the 10-furlong distance, since this is the shortest race in which she’s ever competed. Furthermore, Brown does not have very strong numbers in this situation. Over the past five years, he is 12 for 49 (24 percent, $1.37 ROI) with foreign shippers in turf routes off layoffs of 180 days or more. These runners win at a fair rate but are often overbet. Lady Paname has been in training with Brown since the winter Gulfstream, so something has been keeping her off the track for this lengthy time period. I would use her defensively, but I think there are other contenders.
One of those is obviously War Cabinet (#3), who did well to be third last time after a moderately wide trip. The winner was much the best that day, but this filly is improving with each start. My main concern would be the condition of the turf course, since she did not handle soft going at Keeneland.
I want to bet SEMPER SENTENTIAE (#6). I realize that she’s only coming off a maiden victory, but this filly has displayed real ability in her two starts. She actually did well to only lose her debut by two lengths after a nightmare trip, and she responded very well to the stretch-out in distance last time. It’s a feather in her cap that she handles cut in the ground and she possesses the tactical speed to work out a great trip in a race that doesn’t feature much early speed. If Lady Paname stubs her toe, I think this lightly-raced daughter of The Factor is most likely to land the upset.
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 3,4,7
Trifecta: 6 with 3,7 with 2,3,4,7