This race is totally wide-open, as you have several horses with solid résumés converging from a multitude of directions. You’re Killin Me (#2) may go off as the slight favorite after beating allowance company at Laurel last time out. He was pretty game to win that race after squeezing through a tight spot in mid-stretch. This horse was unsuccessful in two starts in New York, but both of those efforts came against slightly tougher company than this. He’s generally been a consistent sort, and any residual moisture in the surface should only enhance his chances of victory. I’m using him, but there are many others to consider.
California Night (#1) faced tougher company when last seen this spring, but the prospect of a wet track could be troublesome for him. Reed Kan (#4) may be fastest of all in the early stages, and the Pace Projector is predicting that he will encounter a favorable pace scenario on the front end. However, he beat a pretty weak field at Monmouth on Aug. 16, and he’s going to take money in here merely due to the fact that Jason Servis is his trainer.
I want to bet REGALIAN (#5). He actually ran on the same day at Laurel as You’re Killin Me in another division of that N1X allowance race. It’s pretty clear that Regalian participated in the tougher division, as winner Mesotherm is a pretty talented sprinter. Regalian broke sharply that day but got shuffled back through the opening furlongs, eventually finding himself at the back of the pack heading into the far turn. Considering the overall race flow, he actually did well to rally for second. His overall form on wet tracks is somewhat spotty, but he handled it well in the Jerome earlier this year and put in a career-best effort to win by six lengths in the mud at Saratoga two back. If he holds his current form for Tom Morley, I think he’s a top win candidate in this race.
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 1,2,3,4