Entirely (#6) is the horse to beat as she cuts back in distance for Jonathan Thomas after winning a stakes at Gulfstream last time. The filly who finished just behind her that day, A Bit Special, is pretty talented, and Entirely ran well to hold her off after making a wide, premature move to the lead. This filly has been very impressive in both of her turf starts, and I think she is a very deserving favorite in this spot. The Pace Projector is predicting that she will get a fast pace to close into, but Javier Castellano is going to have to work out a trip for her. The turf courses are still favoring horses with rail positions, so I wouldn’t want to see her making another wide sweep around the field. Beyond her, I think this race is wide-open.
Monette (#12) is somewhat interesting as she makes her U.S. debut for Graham Motion, but her wide draw is a concern. Wesley Ward’s Egoli (#5) was impressive in her debut, but she gets a significant class test in this race.
I’m using them, but I want to take a shot with LONELY ROAD (#2) in her turf debut. I’ve been waiting for this filly to switch surfaces ever since she was unveiled this spring. She won a weak maiden race at Belmont two back, at least confirming that she has some speed. Christophe Clement is getting ambitious for this grass debut, but she’s bred to love the ground since her dam was a pretty talented turf horse. David Cohen has done a great job of saving ground on the turf recently, so she figures to work out a good trip.
Another filly that figures to go off at a big price that I want to throw into the mix is Questionoftheday (#7). She’s yet to run a particularly fast race on the dirt, but this daughter of The Factor is a half-sister to 5 turf winners, so she has a right to improve significantly with this surface switch.
Exacta Box: 2,6,7
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 5,12