Belmont Park | Race 5 | Post Time 3:41 p.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs
This is one of the most confounding races on the card since any of the seven entrants seemingly has a right to win. Congruity (#7) is probably the horse to beat merely because he’s the likely front-runner in a race where no one else seems too intent on taking the early lead. He was beaten by Michael Wonderful last time, but you can argue that Congruity ran the better race after setting a solid early tempo.
I don’t want any of the horses exiting the June 15 race at this level. Alwanees (#3) and My Pirate (#6) both improved with the switch to turf, but I feel that they just took advantage of a weak group, whereas this race is tougher. Year of the Kitten (#5) is one to consider as he drops in class, but his recent form has been awful.
I’m taking a shot with new face SPECTACULAR PLUM (#2). Whereas almost all of these horses have been running against straight 3-year-olds in their recent starts, Spectacular Plum has been knocking heads with tougher, older rivals at Monmouth. He never had a chance in that May 26 race after blowing the start and racing far off a pace that held together up front. Then last time, he actually ran very well despite not receiving a great trip. He got shuffled out of position down the backstretch and had to make a four-wide run around the far turn, which is especially detrimental at Monmouth. All things considered, he ran remarkably well to lose by only two lengths as he was finishing fastest of all. That race received a TimeformUS Race Rating of 102, whereas today’s race gets a preliminary rating of 96 – indicative of a significant drop in class. He also gets an important rider switch to John Velazquez.
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 3,5,6,7
Trifecta: 2 with 5,7 with ALL