Belmont Park | Race 7 | Post Time 4:46 p.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs

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While Mr. Buff (#1A) has run the fastest recent speed figures, I wonder about his current form. I know that he seemingly got back to one of his better efforts in that May 12 allowance race, but many have returned out of that event to run significantly worse in their subsequent starts. I wonder if he’s starting to head in the wrong direction as his connections finally decide to take advantage of the New York-bred N2X allowance condition that he’s always been eligible for.

While it’s fair to have similar questions about likely co-favorite Syndergaard’s (#2) current condition, I’m more optimistic about his prospects. This colt clearly possesses talent, but it’s been a long time since he’s run a top race. He now returns in the barn of John Terranova, who has been enjoying a solid year in New York. He’s worked steadily and swiftly for this return, even outdueling graded stakes winner Faypien in his most recent 5-furlong drill. He’s not my top pick, but I think he’s very dangerous.

The runner that I want to bet is RUNAWAY LUTE (#6). He returned from the layoff last month and ran very well to be third while defeating a number of today’s rivals. The pace of that race was fast as closers dominated. Runaway Lute was the only horse to be chasing that quick early tempo to be around at the finish, and he might have gotten even closer had he not had to wait for a clear path at the top of the stretch. It can be tricky for riders to coax the best out of this horse and it seemed like Joel Rosario had a great rapport with the horse last time, so I’m happy to see he’s back aboard for this start. Runaway Lute took a significant step forward in his second start off a similar layoff last season, so I’m hopeful that he can continue his upward trajectory here.

THE PLAY

Win: 6

Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,2,3,4

Trifecta: 2,6 with 2,6 with 1,3,4​