Belmont Park | Race 7 | Post Time 5:08 p.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs

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The trio of runners drawn to the outside should attract the bulk of the play in this compact optional-claiming field. While they all look fairly well matched in terms of speed figures, I believe that COZZY SPRING (#6) is far and away the best of these fillies. She showed promise as a 3-year-old last season, but it’s clear that she has taken a step forward as a 4-year-old despite losing both of her starts. I felt that she was too conservatively ridden two back when she was rated along on the lead through slow fractions.

Cozzy Spring is best when she is aggressively ridden away from the gate and can use her speed to open up an advantage on her rivals. It appears that Dylan Davis was planning to do this last time, but Cozzy Spring was away from the gate a bit sluggishly and could not match strides with eventual winner Picco Uno in the opening yards. She’s not at her best when she has to stalk, yet she still battled on gamely to be second while fending off the race’s favorite, Holiday Disguise. This time, Cozzy Spring is perfectly drawn in the outside post position, and the TimeformUS Pace Projector clearly indicates that she’s faster than her two main rivals. If she gets away to a daylight advantage early, I don’t think they can catch her.

Greatreviews (#5) is likely to be regarded as the main rival, but I don’t think she’s quite as talented as her published form might suggest. Her blowout win two back came against a very weak field, and the mediocre speed figure that she earned for her last race was not flattered by the subsequent performances of some of the also-rans. Queen Laila (#4) showed promise earlier in her career as a 3-year-old in Southern California. However, I don’t love that she was offered for a tag off the layoff two back. David Jacobson’s barn has been pretty cold over the last few months.

THE PLAY

Win: 6

Exacta: 6 with 4,5

Trifecta: 6 with 4,5 with ALL​