Belmont Park | Race 9 | Post Time 5:50 p.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs
At first glance, Holiday Disguise (#5) appears to outclass this group. She’s a graded stakes winner dropping back in against New York-breds. However, despite all of her accomplishments, her speed figures do not indicate that she is a standout in this race. Others have shown themselves to be capable of running nearly as fast. Furthermore, she’s really best at seven furlongs, and this race may be a bit too short for her. I’m using her prominently, but I think she’s going to be an underlay.
While a few of these fillies have speed, none is as fast in the early going as COZZY SPRING (#2). She’s raced primarily against weaker company, but she has nevertheless run a series of TimeformUS Speed Figures that make her very competitive with Holiday Disguise. Her return last time is actually better than it seems since Joel Rosario was too concerned with rating her along on the lead, thus letting others into the race by the time they got to the quarter pole. The winner got the jump on her, but Cozzy Spring battled back gamely all the way to the finish. This filly is best when her rider lets her roll, and that’s exactly what Dylan Davis would do last year. Six furlongs is the perfect distance, and she figures to offer some value.
I’ll primarily key her with Holiday Disguise in exotics, but I will also use Cozzy Spring’s stablemate Absatootly (#7), who is capable at her best but can be difficult to pin down.
Exacta Key Box: 2 with 5,7
Trifecta: 2,5 with 2,5 with 3,7