Belmont Park | Race 7 | Post Time 4:46 p.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs

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I’m not thrilled with the two horses likely to vie for favoritism. News Anchor (#9) is the horse to beat, but he’s likely to get overbet. He is a lightly raced colt for a trainer who knows how to get runners to improve with time. The only issue is that he really does need to get better to win this race, as his 2-year-old form does not make him particularly formidable. Shug McGaughey’s numbers off these kinds of layoffs on turf are merely decent.

The other runner who will attract support is Elenzee (#5). I suppose he’s the other one you want off his most recent effort, but I’ve never been a great fan of this horse. He typically needs everything to go his way in order to be successful, but his speed does make him dangerous.

If I’m going to take a horse coming out of that fourth race on May 10, I want it to be PECULIAR SENSATION (#4). This runner was basically doomed from the start that day, as the field was pretty bunched up and he could not get over to save any ground from his outside post position. He raced four wide all the way around the far turn, which is especially detrimental when the rails are as far out as they were on that occasion. I think you can forgive that effort because this gelding actually has some races from last season that give him a shot in this race. Furthermore, Gregory DiPrima has surprisingly strong numbers second off the claim. Over the past five years, he is 8 for 38 (21 percent, $4.78 ROI) in such situations, and he’s won with plenty of prices. The Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring runners on or near the lead, and he’s quick enough to be racing close up in the early stages.

THE PLAY

Win: 4

Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,5,6,9

Trifecta: 4,9 with 4,9 with 1,5,6​