Belmont Park | Race 8 | Post Time 5:18 p.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs
The Pace Projector is predicting a fast pace even after the scratches of the two outside runners. Black Tide (1) is a run-off type who typically sets swift fractions regardless of early pressure, and he figures to be chased by stretch-out sprinter Dowse’s Beach in the early going. Black Tide is certainly a contender to lead this field wire-to-wire, but I wonder if he’ll be ready to run his best race in his first start off the layoff. Last year, he had to wind up to his better efforts later in the season. He’s dangerous, but I’m primarily using him underneath in this spot.
Inspector Lynley (2) just looks a little too obvious as the favorite in this race. He’s probably the best closer in this field, but his stretch move can be difficult to time correctly. He was facing a tougher field at Keeneland last time when closing belatedly. He makes sense, but I’m not looking to take a very short price on him.
I’m trying to beat the favorite with MADE YOU LOOK (4), a rare Chad Brown runner who should go off at a square price. Overall, this runner’s form for his prior barn was not bad. He ran respectably in the Breeders’ Cup as a 2-year-old before getting compromised in a few of his stakes starts as a 3-year-old. He had no chance to close into a slow pace in the Kitten’s Joy last February and may not have appreciated a soft turf course in the American Turf. This runner appears to be training well for his return to the races, and he possesses the tactical speed to get the jump on Inspector Lynley.
Exacta Key Box: 4 with 1,2,6,7
Trifecta: 2,4 with 2,4 with 1,6,7