Belmont Park | Race 6 | Post Time 4:14 p.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs
I’m not enamored with Theaterintheround (8), who is guaranteed to attract support for the Chad Brown barn off a dull third-place finish here last year. The other fillies exiting that race have not done anything of note in the intervening months. Theaterintheround received a good ride that day, but could not capitalize on it. Now she returns from the layoff and is asked to face a much stronger field. I’m against her at a short price.
I actually prefer Brown’s other horse, the first-time starter Chestnut Street (5). This filly is a half-sister to Saratoga Snacks and is sired by the solid turf influence Scat Daddy. Furthermore, Brown has outstanding numbers with first-time-starting New York-breds in turf routes. Over the past five years, he is 9 for 19 (47 percent, $4.67 ROI) with horses in that situation – though most of those winners were younger than this 4-year-old filly.
My top pick is SPRING DRAMA (3), who is simply too logical for me to pass up in an otherwise confusing race. This filly really improved this winter at Tampa when stretched out to a mile, running two strong races against open company. Looking through the also rans of those races, any of the fillies that were part of the trifecta in those last two starts would be major players in this race. She ran well recently despite going out for a trainer who wins at a low percentage. She has since been privately purchased and transferred to Kiaran McLaughlin, who predictably takes advantage of her New York-bred status. It’s not as if he needs to improve Spring Drama much, if at all, to win this race, and she drew an advantageous inside post position for this distance.
Another horse that I want to include in my wagers is New Pass (10), who must stretch out for the first time and overcome a problematic outside post position on the inner turf. She ran very well in her sprint debut at Saratoga last summer. I’ll also throw in Danielle’s Pride (7), who gets a significant trainer upgrade to David Donk after running well one occasion last season.
Exacta Key Box: 3 with 5,7,10
Trifecta: 3 with 5,10 with 2,5,7,8,10