Aqueduct | Race 6 | Post Time 4:11 p.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs
Sentry (#3) is the only horse in this field who has strung together decent turf efforts. However, I do have some concerns. This gelding has squandered good chances to win recently. He also has required significant time between starts, which is never a great sign. I think you have to use him, but I don’t love him.
The other runner likely to take money is Texican (#9), who switches to turf while dropping in class. Chad Brown actually has good numbers with this move. Over the past five years, he is 4 for 12 (33 percent, $3.03 ROI) with horses dropping to maiden-claiming company for the first time while making their turf debuts. The horse is a half-brother to two turf winners despite being a Bernardini, so perhaps he can handle this surface. I’ll use both, but I’m interested in a longshot with a chance to upset the field.
MYSTERIO (#10) made one start on turf nearly a year ago, and it was actually a decent effort. He got a fine trip racing along the rail for the first 7 furlongs, but had to alter course at the eighth pole when he ducked in with nowhere to go at the gap in the course. From there, he angled outside and just missed fourth while herded out late. In my opinion, he ran well enough that day to suggest that he deserves another shot racing over turf. This gelding is out of a dam who was a turf stakes winner and is a half-brother to two turf winners, so this is his preferred surface. If he’s ready to go off the layoff, he can make some noise here.
Exacta Key Box: 10 with 3,9,11
Trifecta: 3,9,11 with 3,9,11 with 10