Aqueduct | Race 3 | Post Time 2:21 p.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs

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Conquest Bigluck E (#3) is the horse to beat, as he has earned speed figures in each of his last two starts that are superior to what the rest of the runners have accomplished recently. While only his last race came for his current connections, he actually ran quite well that day despite racing against a much tougher field than the one he meets here. He appears to be well spotted and should be tough to beat if he holds his form. I’m only taking a shot against him because I think there’s a horse in this race that is sitting on an improved effort.

CANDY PROMISES (#4) has run better than it appears in each of his last two starts. Two back, he was off a bit slowly and had to rally from far back over a sloppy track that he may not have liked. That race has proven to be very productive as six horses out of it returned to win their next starts. Then last time, he finished a nose behind today’s rival Alaapatique, but there’s no doubt that Candy Promises ran the better race. Feb. 24 featured a strong rail bias that only intensified as the day wore on. Candy Promises was never inside and was one of only a few horses in the second half of the card that successfully rallied while racing wide. He has strong back races and has subtly been rounding into better form. New trainer David Duggan (70 TimeformUS Trainer Rating) does a very good job with a small stable of runners, so I don’t mind this barn change.

THE PLAY

Win: 4

Exacta Key Box: 4 with 2,3,5,6​