This race is totally wide-open, as you can make a valid case for any of the eight entrants. The horse to beat is probably Leah’s Dream (#3) as she enters on a three-race winning streak. All of those victories came against cheaper company, but she’s run some fast speed figures and looks ready for the step up in class. She was claimed out of her last race by Chris Englehart, who does a decent job in that situation. I’m not really against her, but I do think you want to look elsewhere for value.
A slightly better option is Hexameter (#2). They tried a mile with her in her last two starts, but that’s just a bit too far for her. I like her cutting back to this six-furlong distance, and she appears to be in very good form. Both of her sprint efforts at Belmont Park last summer would make her pretty formidable in this spot.
I’m using both of these runners, but the horse who interests me most at an even bigger price is MISS SIZZLE (#1).
I know that Miss Sizzle looks slower than her main rivals at first glance, but I think there’s reason to believe she’s going to take a big step forward here. It’s a sign of confidence that Linda Rice is moving her up in class to this protected spot off a maiden-claiming win. There was a time when this filly was thought to have some talent, as she was bet down to even-money in her debut last year and showed high speed before fading in her second start. She was bet strongly in that most recent win and won with ease after setting a slow pace. There isn’t that much pace signed on for this affair, so she can use her tactical edge to her advantage, as Leah’s Dream is likely to stalk once again. Most notably, Rice has fantastic numbers second off a layoff with horses coming off wins in dirt sprints (24 for 49, $3.47 ROI). I think she could take a big step forward here, and the price has to be generous.
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 2,3,4,6,8
Trifecta: 1,2 with 1,2 with ALL
Trifecta: 1,2 with ALL with 1,2