The two likely favorites are The Cake Is a Lie (#6) and Special Risk (#7). The former comes off a win going this distance, but that came against a very weak field of N2L claimers and she’s stepping up in class here. Nevertheless, she’s held her form well for Gary Gullo this winter and has to be considered a top threat. Special Risk rebounded from a poor effort two back with a narrow loss going a mile last time. You can make the argument that the rail was the place to be that day, and she was positioned on the inside for the first half of that race. Yet the primary question for her is the distance, since she’s done her best running going farther than today’s six furlongs.
The Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring horses on or near the lead, which favors The Cake Is a Lie, but also really helps the projected front-runner TOWN TART (#5) at a better price. After running fine first time back from the layoff in November, this mare has gone in the wrong direction since then, but she’s had excuses in each of those performances. She didn’t want to go a mile two back against tougher company, and then last time she was racing on a dead rail Feb. 21 while most of the other competitors raced out in the center of the track. I don’t fully trust her, but she may offer the best value.
Exacta Key Box: 5 with 2,3,6,7