Aqueduct | Race 6 | Post Time 3:30 p.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs
A few of the key contenders in this race are exiting the Jan. 20 allowance won by Benevolence. That was yet another day where the main track at Aqueduct was strongly favoring horses that stayed on the rail. Therefore, I generally want horses that were racing outside in that event. The horse that achieved the best finish that day was Formal Start (#2), who rallied up the inside to get up for second at odds of 56-1. Obviously, staying inside helped him, but I don’t want to completely discount his chances here. This is a horse that has slowly been rounding back into form since returning from a layoff and he actually does possess more ability than his gigantic odds last time would have suggested. On the other hand, he’s going to be a much shorter price than that this time, so I’m trying to beat him.
The horse that I want to lean on here is H MAN (#8).
Since returning from the layoff this winter, he’s run reasonably well in both of his starts, against rail biases each time. This was especially true in that last race when he raced 3- to 4-wide throughout, and did well to get up for third. H Man is a horse that has done well when able to sit closer to the pace, and the general lack of speed in this event should help him work out his preferred stalking trip. He’s my top selection.
Others that I want to include are Conquest Prankster (#5), who should appreciate turning back to a sprint. His last race was terrible, but he may not care for sloppy tracks. I would also throw in Jeremiah Englehart’s other horse, Calculated Risker (#3). He, too, was against the bias last time, but his closing running style could hinder him and the stretch-out to seven furlongs may not suit him.
Exacta Key Box: 8 with 2,3,5,10
Trifecta: 8 with 2,3,5 with 2,3,5,9,10