Sunday’s TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Cain Is Abel is better than his speed figures indicate

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Aqueduct | Race 2 | Post Time 1:20 p.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs

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Almost all of the major contenders in this race are exiting maiden victories. Big Thicket (#4) is likely to attract some attention off his reasonably fast win going this distance last time. That race may have been a bit tougher than the $50,000 claiming tag would suggest, since both this colt and the runner-up improved significantly on their prior form.

The runner coming into this race with the fastest recent speed figure is Dig That Mine (#2), who returns from a brief layoff for Steve Klesaris. However, he was racing on a strong rail when he won last time, and he may find it difficult to stretch his speed out this route distance coming off the break.

I’m trying to beat these horses with CAIN IS ABEL (#7).

In terms of speed figures, he’s yet to run fast enough to compete again the favorites here, but I think he’s better than he appears to be. Belleville Spring, whom he defeated in that victory last time, returned to win while recording a Beyer Speed Figure that was 31 points higher than the number he earned on Jan. 13. TimeformUS PPs had that last race going a bit faster, but the ‘c’ next to the Race Rating indicates that we cannot have much confidence in the figure’s accuracy due to changing track conditions throughout the day. Cain Is Abel had been bet strongly in his debut and should have gotten plenty of fitness out of his last race, which was run over an extremely tiring track. He is a full brother to Mr. Buff, who won going route distances, so I’m not that concerned about the stretch-out.

THE PLAY

Win: 7

Exacta Key Box: 7 with 1,2,4

Trifecta: 7 with 1,4 with ALL​

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