Aqueduct | Race 5 | Post Time 2:20 p.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs
This is one of the most difficult races on the card, as you have horses converging from various class levels to make up this field of 12 runners.
While I generally like to look for value in these situations, I have trouble getting past likely favorite TOO FAST TO PASS (#7), who is simply the horse to beat off the claim by Rudy Rodriguez. His horses have been running extremely well in recent weeks, and he has been especially dangerous off the claim at this Aqueduct meet. Since racing switched to Aqueduct last fall, Rudy is 9 for 17 (53 percent, $2.98 ROI) first off the claim on the dirt at NYRA.
For such a large field, there is not that much early speed in this spot, and I have to expect that Trevor McCarthy will look to send Too Fast to Pass out to the front and secure position inside of Bluegrass Singer. If this horse improves at all off his recent efforts, he will be very tough to beat. He’s my top pick, but I want to use him with a runner that figures to offer a bit more value.
CONQUEST TWISTER (#2) takes a significant drop in class after facing a much stronger field at the $32,000 level just 7 days ago. Over the past five years, Jeremiah Englehart is 44 for 90 (49 percent, $2.46 ROI) with horses dropping in claiming price by 50 percent or more on the dirt, and he’s 5 for 16 making that move with a $3.97 ROI at NYRA tracks. Conquest Twister may not have appreciated racing right down on the rail last time, which probably was not the place to be on Jan. 21. He’s been effective coming from just off the pace in the past, and I think we’ll see a better effort out of him here.
Exacta: 2,7 with 2,5,6,7,11
Trifecta: 2,7 with 2,7 with 5,6,11