Aqueduct | Race 3 | Post Time 1:20 p.m. (ET) | Go to the FREE TimeformUS PPs
The horse to beat is clearly Hail (#5), who has done little wrong through two career starts and has seemingly limitless potential given her pedigree. She is a half-sister to champion mare Close Hatches and Grade 1-placed Lockdown, both of whom improved with added distance. I have no major knocks against her and believe she must be used in any multi-race wagers.
I’m a bit more skeptical of the other runner likely to take money, Wealth Effect (#3). Her dirt debut last month was not the most inspiring effort, as she had trouble running down the stamina-challenged Wall of Compassion going a mile. While the winner did ride a golden rail for her entire trip, Wealth Effect also was racing inside for much of the way. I prefer others if I’m looking for alternatives to Hail.
The one I think will offer the best value is MIDNIGHT DISGUISE (#1). I know she’s a bit slower than her competition, but I don’t think we’ve seen this filly’s best. She was matched up against inferior competition in her first couple of starts, but she proved her quality last time out in the East View. English Soul, the winner of that race, is a very talented New York-bred filly, and Midnight Disguise ran nearly as well as her in defeat. After breaking a bit slowly, Midnight Disguise was extremely wide throughout, making a four- to five-wide run around the turn and into the lane. She ducked in briefly in midstretch, costing herself some momentum, but stayed on well thereafter, putting five lengths between herself and the third-place finisher in the last furlong. At first glance, one might not think that a daughter of Midnight Lute out of a Yes It’s True mare would want to keep stretching out in distance. However, there’s actually a ton of stamina in this filly’s female family. Her dam was a confirmed dirt router and is half-sister to millionaire New York-bred router Naughty New Yorker. Linda Rice brings Midnight Disguise back on short rest, but she’s had great success with this move. Over the past five years, she is 31 for 83 (37 percent, $2.45 ROI) with horses coming back in eight to 14 days on dirt.
I’ll primarily use Midnight Disguise with Hail, but I also want to throw in longshot Take Charge Tina (#4) at a much larger price. This filly had subtle traffic trouble in her second start, and rebounded with a dominant win at Parx. She could play out as the controlling speed under Kendrick Carmouche.
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 3,4,5
Trifecta: 1 with 4,5 with ALL