Friday’s TimeformUS Highlight Horse: Thirst for Truth fits well on the drop in class

Aqueduct | Race 5 | Post Time 2:47 p.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs
 
There are some distinct class discrepancies among the top contenders in this field. I don’t want horses such as favored Sand City (#6), who has beaten weaker foes and gets a negative barn change. Instead, the horse to beat is probably Pray for Bourbon (#4), who switches surfaces after spending the last few months racing exclusively in turf sprints. Her prior dirt form – all against maiden company – is fine, and she has run speed figures fast enough to make her a top contender in this race on a few occasions. That said, I’m always a little wary of horses like this, since they may no longer prefer a surface that they handled earlier in their careers.
 
My top selection is THIRST FOR TRUTH (#3).
 
 
I realize that the Pace Projector is predicting a situation that may not favor a closer like her, but I just believe that she is the class of this group. She faced a better field when finishing a closing third in her return at Laurel last time, and she had previously run competitive speed figures earlier in her 3-year-old season. Over the past five years, trainer Cathal Lynch is 20 for 58 (34 percent, $2.13 ROI) with horses going from allowance to claiming company on the dirt.
 
THE PLAY
 
Win: 3
Exacta key box: 3 with 4, 5, 6, 7
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