Most of the speed in this race figures to come from the outside post positions. The logical front-runner to include is Nisha (#13), who surprised at more than 7-1 when winning last time in wire-to-wire fashion. That win came against a softer group than the one she meets today, but she did it in a fast time and deserves respect here. Her main rivals appear to be closers.
Sister Sophia (#8) has been rounding back into form for new trainer Jorge Abreu, and recent maiden winner China Rider (#1A) should appreciate getting back into a turf sprint. I think they’re the two closers to use, but I think this race could produce an odd result.
ROSIE P (#12) is the kind of longshot whom I like to throw into my wagers. No, she is not the most likely winner of this race by any stretch, but I nevertheless want to highlight her as a horse who could offer significant value in exotics. She has the look of a filly who could really move up with this switch to turf. Her dam was a turf winner, and she is a half-sister to two turf winners, including one sired by negative turf influence Jump Start. Rosie P is by Girolamo, a 13 percent turf sire who has gotten his fair share of turf sprinters from his first few crops. I think it’s notable that her best race came over a sloppy, sealed track, which is sometimes conducive to horses with turf ability. Furthermore, trainer Kelly Breen gets a 94 TimeformUS Trainer Rating with turf sprinters and a 100 Rating when riding Paco Lopez.
Exacta key box: 12 with 1, 2, 8, 13
Trifecta: 1, 8, 13 with 1, 2, 7, 8, 11, 13 with 12