Belmont | Race 2 | Post Time 1:28 p.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs
Fancy Kitten (#1) is likely to go off as the favorite here, since she’s dropping in class and going out for the Chad Brown barn. However, not only did she not take a step forward for the new barn last time, but she really didn’t do any significant running in that race. I know it came against tougher competition, but she’s not the kind of horse I want to bet at a short price off that kind of effort.
Tisbury (#5) seems more reliable, since she’s run reasonably well in her races, and just didn’t get the right trip last time at Saratoga. This drop in class should agree with her and I’m not sure that she isn’t actually better going shorter.
I’ll use the aforementioned pair, but my top pick is ULTIMATE CAUSE (#6). If this filly runs back to her race two back off the layoff at Monmouth, she can certainly win this. I know that her last race looks disappointing at first glance, but she did not get the savviest of rides that day. She was hustled along early in the race, and was always out of position before getting shuffled back around the turn. I believe she’s better than that effort. Now she gets some realistic class relief, and adds Lasix for the first time.
I also want to use some of the likely speeds underneath, particularly Wish Upon (#3). The Pace Projector is predicting a situation favoring the runners on or near the lead, and she has a chance to control this race on the front end.
Exacta Key Box: 6 with 1,3,5
Trifecta: 6 with 1,5 with 1,2,3,5