Belmont | Race 3 | Post Time 2:32 p.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs
I suppose Manitoulin (#2) is the horse to beat as he gets back to Belmont Park, where he put forth a career-best on the Belmont Stakes Day card. If he can recapture the form that carried him to that explosive win, he’ll likely beat this field. However, I’ve been somewhat disappointed in each of his last two starts. He was hard-pressed to even get up for second behind Hello Don Julio at Saratoga last time, and I think he’ll need to do better to win here. Fire Away (#4) also comes off a disappointing performance and is starting to look like a horse that may not really want to win.
Therefore, I’m taking a shot against both of them with CHANGEWILLDOYAGOOD (#3).
Changewilldoyagood is simply faster than Mark My Style early, so he figures to own a clear early lead. He ran much better than it appears last time in the West Point, when he made the first move after a run-off Black Tide through very fast fractions. He was racing one path off the inside, which was a distinct disadvantage with the rails down, and he had every right to fade late. Even though he’s never gone this far, Changewilldoyagood won going two turns on the dirt earlier in his career, and that requires a bit of stamina. I think he may be better suited to this distance than it seems at first glance, and he’s in the best form of his career right now.
Exacta key box: 3 with 1, 2, 4, 5
Trifecta: 3 with 2, 4 with ALL