Belmont | Race 3 | Post Time 2:32 p.m. (ET) | Go to the TimeformUS PPs
Penjade (#4) is the horse to beat as she goes for her third consecutive win. She beat a relatively strong field last time, but she worked out a great trip that day, sitting well off a contested pace before just nailing the much-the-best runner-up at the wire. She can win, but her best form is now exposed, and I don’t think she’s going to offer any value in this spot.
The two other runners likely to attract significant play are Azaelia (#3) and Somethingelse (#5). I don’t trust Azaelia, who has yet to run a particularly strong race in the U.S. She lucked into her win at Aqueduct last fall, when an incident around the far turn forced her to steady briefly but also wiped out her main competition. Somethingelse may not have cared for the course conditions last time, but I’m not in love with her prior Florida form.
Therefore, I’ve landed on ENCHANTERESSE (#1) at what should be a square price. You can throw out her last race since she clearly hated the boggy turf course she encountered at Saratoga from the moment the gates opened. Her prior effort, in which she was second to the talented Boreale, was solid, and horses have come out of that race to validate the speed figure it was assigned. It seems like she’s finally found her best form now as a 5-year-old, and she figures to work out a great trip stalking Kinsley Kisses early in a situation projected to favor runners on or near the lead.
Exacta Key Box: 1 with 3,4,5
Trifecta: 1 with 4,5 with ALL