Saratoga | Race 8 | Post Time 5:02 p.m. (ET) | Go to the FREE TimeformUS PPs
Snap Decision (#2) is clearly the horse to beat in the Better Talk Now. He finished a decent fourth against a stronger group than the one he meets today last time out in the Grade 2 Hall of Fame. The three horses that finished ahead of him that day – Bricks and Mortar, Yoshida, and Big Handsome – would all be significant favorites had they been entered in this race. Furthermore, Snap Decision was compromised by a slow pace in that race (indicated by blue color-coding in the PPs) and did well to get within a couple lengths of the winner at the wire.
However, there is not that much speed signed on for this race, either, and Snap Decision figures to be up against the race flow once again. His chief rival, BLIND AMBITION (#1), is not going to be a much bigger price than the morning-line favorite, but I just think he’s the more likely winner of the two given the circumstances.
I’m typically not a fan of horses stretching out in distance from sprints to routes on the turf. That said, I think 5 1/2 furlongs may have been too short for Blind Ambition, as he needed the length of the stretch to get up to win his stakes debut last time. His prior turf effort, which came around two turns at Gulfstream, was powerful, as he took command on the backstretch and widened his lead from there. He’s always been bred to be a star on the grass, and his connections are just now finally focusing on the correct surface with him. Speed – and the inside hedge – is so advantageous going a mile on this inner turf course, and I think he’ll find himself with a clear early lead against this group.
I’ll use him with Snap Decision, but I also want to throw in Holiday Stone (#7) at a slightly better price. He ran better than it appears in each of his last two starts going this distance, and is not without a chance to pull off the minor upset. That said, his outside post position may be detrimental, since he’s likely to be forced to stalk outside.
Exacta Key Box: 2,7
Trifecta: 1 with 2,7 with ALL